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	<title>Homelink Finance - Mortgage Broker Auckland</title>
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	<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz</link>
	<description>Auckland New Zealand. Mortgages At The Best Rates</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2012 03:28:06 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Sellers Hold the Power</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/uncategorized/sellers-hold-the-power/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/uncategorized/sellers-hold-the-power/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2012 03:28:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1192</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is the sellers who hold the power as the market returns. It is the sellers who hold the power as the market returns. For the first time in more than four years, the  BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey provides solid evidence that conditions are shifting more towards being a sellers ’ market. A recorded net [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1192'></a><p><strong>It is the sellers who hold the power as the market returns.</strong></p>
<p>It is the sellers who hold the power as the market returns. For the first time in more than<br />
four years, the  BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey provides solid evidence that<br />
conditions are shifting more towards being a sellers ’ market.</p>
<p>A recorded net of 15% of those responding claim that buyers are now more motivated<br />
than sellers. Interestingly, 27% of respondents are observing more investors in the<br />
market. The results support an upturn in the residential property market in New Zealand.</p>
<p>The current sellers ’ market is driven by the shortage of listings, with numbers of homes<br />
for sale having dropped to its lowest point since 2008. The inventory for homes having<br />
dropped to below 30 weeks is also at a four-year low.</p>
<p>The number of weeks to sell a home in Auckland is 18 weeks, Canterbury 16 weeks,<br />
Otago 24 weeks; however, the central North Island is still 84 weeks. This has heated up<br />
due to low interest rates, new home buyers entering the market and the lack of new<br />
construction.</p>
<p><strong>RENTAL PROPERTY SHORTAGE </strong><br />
The rental property shortage is heading to a crisis. It continues to be a National trend<br />
which is fuelled by lack of construction of new homes and investment by developers.</p>
<p>The cost of new builds and the costs of consents ( due to stringent council requirements<br />
because of the leaky home issue ) are also contributing to the shortage. In some areas,<br />
landlords are not investing further due to the low return on their investment and the<br />
changes in tax depreciation rules. Contrary to this, Auckland is experiencing a surge of<br />
investors re-entering the market.</p>
<p>Tenants are choosing to live in affordable locations and spend more time travelling to<br />
their work place. The areas of the country where rents are still affordable often reflect the<br />
limited work opportunities within these regions. First National Property Managers are<br />
dealing with multiple applications for rental properties, particularly if these properties are<br />
of superior quality.</p>
<p>The shortage of rental properties will result in rent prices continuing to<br />
increase across many areas of the country &#8211; particularly, Auckland and Christchurch.<br />
The lack of affordability for first home buyers ( w ith families ) may result in many being<br />
unable to climb out of the rental cycle and into owning a home.</p>
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		<title>To fix or not to fix</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/to-fix-or-not-to-fix/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/to-fix-or-not-to-fix/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jul 2012 07:02:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Finance Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is tempting to leave all borrowings on floating, waiting for the &#8220;low point&#8221;. However, that point may be very hard to pick with so many variables. Our rates are also dependent on overseas events and no one, including the economists can accurately predict the events that could happen. Rather than try and predict the bottom of [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1087'></a><p>It is tempting to leave all borrowings on floating, waiting for the &#8220;low point&#8221;. However, that point may be very hard to pick with so many variables. Our rates are also dependent on overseas events and no one, including the economists can accurately predict the events that could happen.</p>
<p>Rather than try and predict the bottom of the fixed interest cycle, it would be safer to fix some and float some.</p>
<p>It is possible to split your mortgage into several fixed rate terms so that not all the borrowings come off fixed at the same time.</p>
<p>Perhaps floating half or a third and fixing the rest.</p>
<p>The advertised fixed rates are just an indication at the moment since we are currently negotiating discounts. However, the discounting that is  happening at the moment, won&#8217;t last forever. Banks are competing to gain new customers or retain them but as rates firm up the discounting will stop. When that happens no one knows but we are in an unusual situation.</p>
<p>There is the option to fix for 1 or 2 years, which are really good rates.However, at the end of that fixed term, the question to ask is what the rates might be at that time. It may be a better option to fix some for a longer term to hedge your bets.</p>
<p>No one is expecting an interest rate spike but then again, no one expected the rates to stay this low for this length of time. Historically 7.4% is a great rate and at this time even the 5 year rates are less than that. I am not suggesting fixing everything for 5 years although  1f you can get a rate around 6% for 5 years then surely that wouldn&#8217;t be too shabby.</p>
<p>Remember also that in the last cycle, when clients fixed at 9.5% for 5 years (since they were worried about rates hitting double digits), they had hefty break fees to come out of those  fixed terms. This time it will be different. If a client were to fix for a longer term and circumstances changed and they needed to break their fixed rate term then the chances of break fees would be less since rates are more likely to go up than too much further down.</p>
<p>Banks are in the business to make money, so just like the borrowers taking a punt on when to fix, the banks also need to look at their numbers to make sure they don&#8217;t make a loss. I think it is safe to assume that the banks expect rates to stay reasonable stable for the next year or so, at this stage anyway, because of the rates being offered. However, that can change at any time.</p>
<p>It pays not to put all your eggs in one basket and perhaps look at splitting existing loans into various fixed terms along with keeping a proportion on floating</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Seven Money Mistakes to Avoid</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/finance-updates/seven-money-mistakes-to-avoid/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/finance-updates/seven-money-mistakes-to-avoid/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jul 2012 06:59:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Finance Updates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1101</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We all make financial mistakes and they add up Academic research tells us that emotions and experiences can distort our financial decisions. While our mistakes are rarely the result of a single mental error, our feelings can make us fumble. Below, seven big financial mistakes and the psychology behind them. 1. Saving with the right [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1101'></a><p><strong><em>We all make financial mistakes and they add up</em></strong></p>
<p>Academic research tells us that emotions and experiences can distort our financial decisions. While our mistakes are rarely the result of a single mental error, our feelings can make us fumble. Below, seven big financial mistakes and the psychology behind them.</p>
<p><strong>1. Saving with the right hand and spending with the left</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><strong>Diagnosis:</strong> Mental accounting</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong> Keeping money in a savings account while paying credit card debt at 19%, thinking a tax refund is a reason to spend; obsessing over the price of a new car but not monitoring the weekly grocery spend.</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> Look at the whole financial picture, not just the part that you want to see..read more here</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>2. Playing it too safe</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis:</strong> Loss Aversion</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong>  Quick to sell winning stocks but slow to sell losing ones; putting too much cash in money-market funds and not enough in stocks; reluctance to trade away what you already have, even for something more valuable</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> No one likes losing money &#8212; a truism that economists call &#8220;loss aversion.&#8221; Because we can avoid only losses that we recognize, we tend to focus on immediate costs, while ignoring more subtle costs and even savings. e.g. we should recognize that getting a $4 discount is worth as much as avoiding a $4 surcharge. But most of us would rather avoid that surcharge</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>3. Looking into a Cloudy Crystal Ball</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis;</strong> Misunderstanding Risk</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong> Putting too much money into your favourite investment, not diversifying, not putting in place risk protection such as your personal health as well as assets</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> Take out appropriate insurance. The majority of people insure their assets yet their biggest asset is the ability to earn. Income protection insurance is just as important and house insurance, if not more important.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>4. Living in the moment</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis</strong>; Procrastination</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong> Failing to plan for the future</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> Work out how much you need to keep the lifestyle you want during retirement and plan your investments/savings accordingly</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>5. Throwing good money after bad</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis;</strong> Need a reality check</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms</strong>; Hanging on in the hope that &#8216;things&#8217; will improve without looking at facts in the market place</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> The market goes in cycles and eventually things improve but only if you can stay afloat financially. Staying in an investment that is losing money or costing you more than you can afford is not the way forward. Sometimes it pays to cut your losses, regroup and start again later. Often more money is made at a later date which makes up for the temporary loss rather than hanging on till the bitter end and have nothing to show for your efforts</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>6. Letting your ego get in the way</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis;</strong> Over confidence</p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong> Losing sight of what is really happening in the market place and thinking you know better. Not knowing when to have a break and consolidate</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> Studies show that we often tend to overestimate our abilities. Confidence and optimism are a crucial part of any investor however, over confidence leads people to  believe they can beat the market, that the &#8216;good&#8217; times won&#8217;t end and that property prices will keep rising.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>7. Following the crowd</strong></p>
<p><strong>Diagnosis Herding</strong></p>
<p><strong>Symptoms;</strong> Following what other people say or do without doing your own due diligence. Not every type of investing is suitable for everyone.</p>
<p><strong>Solution;</strong> Do your own research, not just because it &#8216;seemed&#8217; a good idea by a group of others. Don&#8217;t be easily led, lots of people have lost a large part of their investment because they didn&#8217;t check things out properly</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Gift duty abolished</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/gift-duty-abolished/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/gift-duty-abolished/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 02:29:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Accounting news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1065</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s now official. The legislation to abolish gift duty from 1 October 2011 has been enacted. This means that there will be no gift duty payable for gifts made on or after 1 October 2011 and that gift statements will no longer be required to be filed with the IRD for gifts made on or after 1 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1065'></a><p>It’s now official. The legislation to abolish gift duty from 1 October 2011 has been enacted. This means that there will be no gift duty payable for gifts made on or after 1 October 2011 and that gift statements will no longer be required to be filed with the IRD for gifts made on or after 1 October 2011.</p>
<p>The abolition of gift duty means that you can forgive any remaining amount under your existing gifting programme all at once. Any future property transferred to your trust can be acknowledged and gifted entirely on the same date.</p>
<p>Nothing is require it to be lodged with the IRD although legal evidence is still required to be kept in your trust file in the form of deeds of gift as always.</p>
<p>It is important to remember that even if you completely forgive your loan to your trust, any creditors may still have the ability to claw back the assets transferred through the following: To read the whole article and get the full story click on Gift Duty abolished <a title="Gift Duty Abolished PDF" href="http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/Gift-Duty-Abolished1.pdf" target="_blank">Gift Duty Abolished</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Looking for good properties to buy?</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/property-information/looking-for-good-properties-to-buy/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/property-information/looking-for-good-properties-to-buy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 01:39:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investment Property info]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1061</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Finding it hard to find well priced property for residential investment ? By the time a property is advertised in the local paper or on TradeMe the real estate agents have already contacted their repeat customers like major investors and property finders Often these people are given more properties than they can buy themselves and [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1061'></a><p>Finding it hard to find well priced property for residential investment ?</p>
<p>By the time a property is advertised in the local paper or on TradeMe the real estate agents have already contacted their repeat customers like major investors and property finders</p>
<p>Often these people are given more properties than they can buy themselves and therefore onsell them to other investors.</p>
<p>How are you able to receive information on some of these properties?</p>
<p>Several reputable property finders are now sending  this information to Homelink Finance</p>
<p>If you don&#8217;t have time to do your own research and would like to know what the property finders can offer throughout New Zealand.</p>
<p>Then email property@homelinkfinance.co.nz</p>
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		<title>7 Ways to tame you mortgage</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/general-news/7-ways-to-tame-you-mortgage/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/general-news/7-ways-to-tame-you-mortgage/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 01:30:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General news]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1056</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With interest rates falling this is a great opportunity to reduce your loans. If you have a revolving credit facility this will mean that more funds become available as your balance reduces which means that this could add up to another deposit to purchase another property since the limit stays the same (unless its a [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1056'></a><p>With interest rates falling this is a great opportunity to reduce your loans. If you have a revolving credit facility this will mean that more funds become available as your balance reduces which means that this could add up to another deposit to purchase another property since the limit stays the same (unless its a reducing facility)</p>
<p>1. If you are used to paying what you currently pay and negotiate a lower rate then the difference will reduce your loan via the revolving credit facility</p>
<p>2. If the loans are all on fixed rates then most banks will let you take a slice off that amount and convert it to a revolving credit so that you can make the reductions</p>
<p>3. Alternatively if you are on a floating table mortgage you can ask for a reduction in the rate but keep the payments the same as before. This will reduce the principal portion of your mortgage</p>
<p>4. Do you have spare cash sitting in a bank account? You may only be earning a small amount of interest yet paying tax on that interest portion. Why not &#8216;park&#8217; that money in your revolving credit so that it&#8217;s still there for your future use but in the meantime it will reduce the amount of interest you pay on that part of your loan thereby reducing your principal (providing you keep paying in the same amount as usual)</p>
<p>5. Had a pay increase? Adjust your mortgage payments by the same % as your income increased.</p>
<p>6. Make lump sum payments to reduce the main loan. Even on fixed rates most banks will allow you to pay off a portion without penalty</p>
<p>7. Personal debt? As you pay off these small loans then add the previous payments you are used to making to your mortgage to reduce that large loan</p>
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		<title>Are you paying too much for your mortgage?</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/are-you-paying-too-much-for-your-mortgage/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/are-you-paying-too-much-for-your-mortgage/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 01:26:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Finance Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1051</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are you paying too much for your mortgage? Floating rates at 5.25% are on offer for most borrowers (subject to bank approval of course) but if you don&#8217;t ask then you&#8217;ll carry on paying the rate you are on, the banks aren&#8217;t about to offer a cheaper rate unless you ask for it. What difference [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1051'></a><p>Are you paying too much for your mortgage? Floating rates at 5.25% are on offer for most borrowers (subject to bank approval of course) but if you don&#8217;t ask then you&#8217;ll carry on paying the rate you are on, the banks aren&#8217;t about to offer a cheaper rate unless you ask for it.</p>
<p>What difference does it make? On a loan of $285,000 currently paying 5.75% it means a saving of $1425 pa or $118.75 per month.</p>
<p>Generally if this means a 0.5% discount on your current rate then most banks will maintain this discount for a minimum of 1 year as / if the rate changes. There are some very good discounts on the fixed rates as well, it might be worth considering fixing a portion of your loan for the longer term.</p>
<p>The short term rates are definitely more attractive but someone said to me once &#8220;if the rates are high then fix short but if they are low then fix long&#8221; This makes sense to me since we don&#8217;t know what the rates will be in (say) 2 or 3 years and any short term savings may well be gobbled up if the rates are higher.</p>
<p>There is of course a great debate going on whether to keep floating or to fix so that decision is up to the individual risk profile. A very good recording done by Bernard Hickey is here. It&#8217;s 8 minutes long but a very good balanced point of view on this debate. <a title="Bernard Hickey" href="http://www.ziln.co.nz/video/3616" target="_blank">click for recording here</a></p>
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		<title>four reasons NZ will not become the Athens of the Pacific</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/general-news/four-reasons-nz-will-not-become-the-athens-of-the-pacific/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/general-news/four-reasons-nz-will-not-become-the-athens-of-the-pacific/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 01:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General news]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=1048</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Article written by Damien Grant- NZ Herald June 3 We live in the best of times &#8211; interest-free student loans, pensions for all, free health care, free education for our children and free ferry rides for our grandparents. Interest rates are low, our dairy remains in demand, our banking system is untainted by the winds [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate1048'></a><p><strong>Article written by Damien Grant- NZ Herald June 3</strong></p>
<p>We live in the best of times &#8211; interest-free student loans, pensions for all, free health care, free education for our children and free ferry rides for our grandparents.</p>
<p>Interest rates are low, our dairy remains in demand, our banking system is untainted by the winds buffeting global finance and our civil service is the envy of the developed world. We are going to catch Australia within a generation.</p>
<p>Yet, we also live in the worst of times &#8211; of unsustainable government deficits, a declining relative standard of living and ballooning government debt. Our best and brightest are abandoning Aotearoa, leaving behind only beneficiaries and unpaid student debt. We have generations of people living in perpetual dependency and a culture of entitlement and petty envy. We are spiralling into a Grecian quagmire.</p>
<p>The hope of catching Australia has been dropped from this government&#8217;s agenda, and despite the hyperbole by some, there are four reasons we will not become the Athens of the South Pacific.</p>
<p>Tax Collection: A large part of the Greek problem is that tax laws are not enforced. More than 40 per cent of their taxes are not being collected.</p>
<p>This does not happen here.</p>
<p>Fiscal Transparency: To keep borrowing well past what was fiscally prudent, Greece fudged its accounts. Our civil service, and especially the Treasury, has a strong culture of integrity and independence.</p>
<p>Political Resolve: It is deeply frustrating to see a deficit equal to 4 per cent of GDP when the economy is growing but our political class is aware of the importance of maintaining debt to GDP ratio at a sustainable level. The government has done an adequate, if uninspiring, job of reducing the level of state spending.</p>
<p>The Kiwi: Greece borrowed Euros and must repay Euros. We have borrowed New Zealand dollars. If we ever found ourselves where Greece is today, we could re-write the agreement with the Governor of the Reserve Bank and our debt would be gone by lunchtime.</p>
<p>Key and English are conservative managers of our affairs. However, they are not taking the steps needed to break the culture of dependency, shrink the size of the state and unlock our economic potential.</p>
<p>Key claimed he was ambitious for New Zealand. This Budget shows no sign of that ambition. He knows what needs to be done to catch Australia, even if it costs him a third term. It would be a far better thing for him to do and will earn him a far better legacy.</p>
<div class="updated"  style="visibility:hidden;"> <h2 class="entry-title">four reasons NZ will not become the Athens of the Pacific</h2></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Why Choose Homelink Finance?</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/why-choose-homelink-finance/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2012 00:20:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=998</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why use Homelink Finance? We have not just survived the recession but thrived through it and are experts at sourcing the right financial product for your needs Why use a Mortgage Broker rather than deal direct with a bank? Banks only have their product while we work will a variety of banks and non bank [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate998'></a><h1><span style="color: #800000;"><strong>Why use Homelink Finance?</strong></span></h1>
<ul>
<li>We have not just survived the recession but thrived through it and are experts at sourcing the right financial product for your needs</li>
<li>Why use a Mortgage Broker rather than deal direct with a bank? Banks only have their product while we work will a variety of banks and non bank lenders, giving you many more options.</li>
<li>Good experienced advice, working as investors for investors</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong><em>Property is one of the largest investments you will make and helping you through the process is what we do best. More than just organising a mortgage!</em></strong></h3>
</blockquote>
<p><strong><span style="color: #800000;">As mortgage brokers we know which lender will be best in your case at the best rates</span></strong></p>
<p>Lenders have different policies and criteria and you could be wasting a lot of time dealing with a lender with who you won’t qualify, why run the risk of missing out on your finance date by not knowing where to go for the best deal for you</p>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong><em>Best of all, OUR SERVICE IS FREE !</em></strong></span></h3>
<p><strong><span style="color: #800000;">So who pays us?</span></strong><br />
The mainstream banks do.</p>
<p><span style="color: #800000;"><strong>Does this have any impact on your interest rate to the bank?</strong></span><br />
No, not at all and often we can get a waiver of any application fee for you and some banks will contribute toward a portion of your legal costs (subject to bank approval)</p>
<p>If you need a non bank Lo Doc product then any fee will usually be capitalized onto the loan</p>
<p>Homelink Finance has been providing financial solutions for existing and referral clients for over 16 years. Tina Webb, The CEO is a Registered Financial Advisor and member of the NZMBA</p>
<p>Homelink Finance deals with 10+ different lenders from main stream banks to non-bank lenders</p>
<p>Even though the office is in Auckland we source finance for the purchase of residential property throughout New Zealand for both local (NZ) clients and those living overseas thanks to the internet, skype and phone communications</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="updated"  style="visibility:hidden;"> <h2 class="entry-title">Why Choose Homelink Finance?</h2></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Economic outlook 2012</title>
		<link>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/home-link-finance/economic-outlook-2012/</link>
		<comments>http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/latest-news/home-link-finance/economic-outlook-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2012 21:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tinawebb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Home Link Finance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homelinkfinance.co.nz/?p=874</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This very informative article was provided by BMC (Business Management Consultancy) Paul Ayers. For further information or Business Consultancy go to  www.thebmc.co.nz or email Paul@thebmc.co.nz (Please note; this article was written in January so some events may already have occured, however the article is still very relevant) 1.  The global situation: 2.  Here in New Zealand: [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a name='rate874'></a><p>This very informative article was provided by BMC (Business Management Consultancy) Paul Ayers. For further information or Business Consultancy go to  <a title="blocked::blocked::blocked::http://www.thebmc.co.nz/&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;<br />
blocked::blocked::http://www.thebmc.co.nz/&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;<br />
blocked::http://www.thebmc.co.nz/">www.thebmc.co.nz</a> or email Paul@thebmc.co.nz</p>
<p><strong><em>(Please note; this article was written in January so some events may already have occured, however the article is still very relevant)</em></strong></p>
<h3>1.  The global situation:</h3>
<h3>2.  Here in New Zealand:</h3>
<h3>3.  What you should do</h3>
<p><strong>The global situation:</strong></p>
<p>Europe cannot survive in the long-term. It does not matter how many people desperately want it to, it defies the laws of economics. You cannot strap a bicycle to a car and keep driving; whether you will kill the cyclist or the attachments break, is irrelevant – it does not work.</p>
<p>Most people in New Zealand are bemused at how the whole European integration project survives, or how it happened in the first place; it  must be remembered that after World War Two most Europeans desperately sought integration as the best way of avoiding being invaded yet again; they were happy to sacrifice their nationhood for a certain peace.</p>
<p>European integration is a giant industry; honest figures are impossible to unearth but four years ago the core of the EU alone employed over 55,000 staff, most of whom were some of the best paid bureaucrats on the planet! Now a hundred thousand pen-pushers are fighting potential redundancy with all their cunning and that is why there is so much resourcefulness, ingenuity and blind faith in every latest sticking-plaster arrangement that comes out of Brussels..</p>
<p>Why has the issue evolved the way it has? It has been progressed by a series of downward steps – a classic case of the situation forcing the decision:</p>
<p>1. An indebted country needs more money<br />
2. Traditional sources will not oblige<br />
3. A stop-gap is found, increasingly recycling the same money or printing more making the situation worse &#8211; but no longer imminent<br />
4. The leaders have another summit and pledge a little of their own money and<br />
hope for enough from somewhere else – and yet more austerity<br />
5. They announce a grand plan<br />
6. Return to (1)</p>
<p><strong>So why can the European leaders not sort the problem out?</strong></p>
<p>1. They cannot pledge any more of their own money because it will reduce their<br />
own credit rating.<br />
2. Their voters (or constitutional courts) will not allow it.<br />
3. Too much austerity will strangle their economies.<br />
4. They are incapable of effective tax collection.<br />
5. No-one else wants to lend them any money – when the 1 trillion EFSF was announced in November, they went cap in hand to China, Norway, Qatar, Singapore etc. – all the sovereign wealth funds. Be honest, would you lend a country in Europe some money right now? Should your super scheme do it?</p>
<p>Why are the commercial institutions who seem to control the issue so reluctant to drive home the final nail in the coffin? Firstly they are benefiting from the increased margins they can justify – and secondly they need time to extract themselves from the areas of potential fallout – as much time as they can.</p>
<p>Graphs of exposure to European debt read like president Obama’s popularity ratings, high on the left and going down over time with a fierce slope. So this debt is being held by less and less parties (and the IMF) as everyone (who is able to) ducks out of the house of cards, leaving the ECB lending to European banks who then lend to European governments who, if they were a mortgagee would be deemed unable to pay – no wonder the ratings agencies disapprove!</p>
<p>In other currency unions, mobility of resources balances out differences in productivity levels. In the US, jobs – and therefore people – move from state to state as a consequence of relative economic health. This option does not exist in Europe; Greeks and Danes do not, will not and (due to language) cannot up-sticks and relocate to act as a balancing factor.</p>
<p>The focus on austerity, correct though it is, overlooks the fact that if you purge a country’s cost base by axing spending you must replace that demand due to increased competitiveness. In this instance, that can only happen as the Euro slides and slides. If it slides and slides, who will want to hold it?</p>
<p>In a nutshell, it does not matter how much people want something to work, if it is impossible, it will not work, no matter how unthinkable the consequences. So it will fail, the only questions are how and when.</p>
<p>There are sliding scales of how painful the split will be, how quick the process will be and how fragmented the end result is, and those are, it must be confessed, beyond the ability of this consultancy to predict with enough certainty to stake our name on it. We hope it is soon, so the consequent recovery can start as soon as possible – which is brutal but better.</p>
<p><strong> What will happen?</strong></p>
<p>There will be two ‘shock waves’ following the primary event –</p>
<p>the first will be almost immediate and will see a seizure of finance for a few weeks, similar to 2008 but better controlled (by dint of being anticipated). This will not be as bad as it sounds because a lot of planning has gone into it already.</p>
<p>The second will diminish global demand and be more like the falling of the tide than a tidal wave. The good news is that while Europe and European firms will be hampered by legal complications and austerity for some time, the resources they would have consumed will be eagerly consumed elsewhere (see below).</p>
<p>We talked last year about the world needing inflation. The IMF’s Quarterly Publication, Finance &amp; Development, talks about ‘financial repression’ which is when governments implement policies to channel to themselves funds that would otherwise go elsewhere.</p>
<p>High reserve requirements, implicit caps in interest rates, directed lending by captive domestic audiences and a whole host of other unseen tools allow governments to drive down their debt by creating real world inflation and underpaying for sovereign debt.</p>
<p>If governments make real interest rates negative (which they are) it is in effect a tax –subtle, effective and necessary but a tax nevertheless. (NB this is an unstated reason why the Europeans want to stamp on the City of London – it acts as a competitor and obstacle to the financial repression they have exercised for decades)</p>
<p>America might rally behind Mitt Romney and elect a man who can sort out its problems, but the chance of his wheels coming off at some point are still significant. The American political system is broken as irreparably as the European financial system; the process of ‘Gerrymandering’ has created an electoral system where the vast majority of electorates are a certain victory for one side or the other.</p>
<p>Therefore the main intent of the candidate is to win as much of their party’s support, rather than moving to the centre. American politics is so polarised now that the lowest number of Bills ever have some element of cross-party support, by a considerable margin.</p>
<p>In order to be sure of winning the Republican nomination, a candidate must have the kind of line on guns, abortion, gay marriage that makes them unlikely to be open-minded about other matters. This polarisation leads to fanaticism – neither side listens to the other and sees dissent amongst its own as heresy; most Republican voters have such a blanket opposition to raising taxes they will not permit it even as part of a package to close loopholes – even though their tax code is now 3.2 million pages!</p>
<p>The American economy will gradually improve this year but the rise in their currency (due to the demise of the Euro) will hamper their manufacturers just when things start to look better – so whilst it wont be doom and gloom, the US economy is not poised to be the engine of global growth. One step forward, one step backward.</p>
<p>Luckily, given the above, there is the rest of the world and even though China<br />
and Russia might be faltering, India continues to march onwards along with SubSaharan Africa which is showing record levels of growth (despite Zimbabwe and South Africa). This is the year – nay the decade – of the G20 country and expect the likes of Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea, Brazil and Thailand* to power ahead and drag with them many of their neighbours.</p>
<p>Europe’s lack of demand will help these countries more than it will hinder them and the rise of their own domestic consumer will be a regional boost and drive global demand for raw materials. There is not the space or need to go into developing economies in too much detail, but there are a good number of larger countries who are doing well through efficiency, enthusiasm, and innovation.<br />
* Not actually a G20 country but similar to the other examples and one of several economies that are almost big enough to warrant inclusion – while opinions differ slightly, there are roughly 32 larger economies in the world and in the above we are referring to that group less China, Russia, Europe and America.</p>
<p><strong>And here in New Zealand:</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong><strong>European suppliers</strong></p>
<p>This advice is taken from the Outlook last year, when we had the courage to say:<br />
If you deal in the Euro you simply cannot afford not to plan for its collapse. Consider the potential and likely impacts on your supply chain (or customer base) in the event of:<br />
1. Price uncertainty<br />
2. Currency collapse (would your suppliers run out of their raw materials)<br />
3. Interrupted supply<br />
4. Strike action<br />
5. Inability to conduct financial transactions</p>
<p>To that we would now add a year later, avoid entering into contracts in the Euro if it can be avoided, or ensure that some provision is made for an alternative currency.</p>
<p><strong>Cashflow.</strong><br />
The BMC did worry that January 2012 would be as painful as January 2009 for some businesses, but it has proved smoother than that. We hope to see things loosen off slightly during the year (see domestic demand below) and would hope that our banks (who are to a degree insulated from the European shock-wave) will have the courage and decency to leave matters as unaffected as possible. A tall order, some might say.</p>
<p><strong>Christchurch</strong><br />
There are two questions to be answered about the fate of the garden city:<br />
Will it ever stop – and will the much-vaunted construction bubble ever come? The BMC is pessimistic about the end of ‘aftershocks’ (see below) and is concerned that safety and insurance concerns could see the rebuild take place in dribs and drabs, especially if further after-shocks continue to change the perception of where is and is not safe to build. This is a situation where there is no right answer and the government will be all too aware that its handling of this matter could well define their next election campaign. We suspect that it will not be until the tail end of 2012 that the industries who will supply this re-build will enjoy a decent amount of uplift; it will take longer than everyone imagines, not for the first contract, but for the certainty of further ones.</p>
<p><strong>Farming</strong><br />
Take comfort that the lousy weather this holiday has improved household balance<br />
sheets (by reducing spending) and added a couple of billion dollars to our balance of<br />
payments. Fonterra was on track to add 10% to last years supply (March year) and<br />
anyone who has a garden will know that the two days of rain, two days of sun cycle<br />
which has lasted since early Dec is amazing for growing – especially grass. As the G20 (32) countries mentioned above continue to bloom, expect New Zealand’s primary produce to find new markets in ever more growing regional economies. This is good for us and will ensure that farming pumps a large injection into the economy this year.<br />
<strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>Export</strong><br />
This is the decade of the G20 countries (and a few more who almost make that list)<br />
New Zealand exporters (and their suppliers) should be looking at Mexico, Turkey,<br />
Indonesia, Canada, Australia, South Africa (with caution), Brazil etc. etc.</p>
<p><strong>Imagination</strong><br />
is the key to success in externally focussed businesses; many export statistics will look completely different by 2020!</p>
<p>Wise non-exporters will position themselves in the value chain of productive, export industries as areas of natural growth, and away from fickle internal consumer-driven demand, where possible.</p>
<p><strong>Internal demand</strong><br />
There are some indicators that internal demand is now rising, albeit only in some<br />
sectors – and many of those sectors (such as some aspects of residential onstruction<br />
work) have structural constraints or can access unused resources in neighbouring<br />
sectors, meaning that over-heating is unlikely. Retail demand will continue to stay<br />
muted; household balance sheets may be partially restored but underlying consumer confidence is literally less reckless than it was five years ago, and as a result consumption habits have changed.</p>
<p>The BMC hopes that the positive effects of Christchurch and farming will lead to a<br />
strong performance from the third quarter onwards; that investment in plant and<br />
people will lead to a higher velocity of money and ambitious budgets for the year<br />
ending March 2013. Unless the fall of the Euro happens by then (or its fall is more a gentle lowering to the ground, which we consider unlikely) then internal demand will be a gentle upwards slope, with Business Confidence returning after the first quarter uninterrupted by bad news.</p>
<p><strong>In summary</strong>, there is growing internal demand (albeit with considerable sensitivity to negative events) – expect slow growth in the first two quarters then much stronger from July onwards. When Europe goes, expect it to halve the growth for that quarter and take a quarter off the growth for the subsequent quarter.</p>
<p><strong>Further seismic activity</strong><br />
As a client remarked cheekily to The BMC recently, if it was your wife/husband/mother-in-law who was grumbling away like the seismic activity is<br />
around Christchurch (and other parts of the country), you would think the worst was still to come. While The BMC does not offer geological forecasts as such, we consider the chances of further activity substantial (in some form) and urge all businesses to:<br />
1. Revisit their risk management<br />
2. Consider their crisis management<br />
3. Revisit their insurances critically</p>
<p><strong>Currency</strong><br />
With so many things in the melting pot, it is a hard task to forecast a major currency for 2012 let alone ours with no control over its own destiny! Good primary produce and Christchurch insurance funds will prop the currency up; demand for raw materials (when Christchurch rebuild starts) and global currency shocks will all push the dollar down.</p>
<p>The BMC’s advice would be to take cover on anything beyond the immediate as most of the currency swings this year will be prompted by events beyond the ability of our clients to foresee accurately.</p>
<p><strong>Risk management</strong><br />
Every business should undergo a rigorous annual Risk Management Plan which<br />
examines not just the things everyone expects but starts by establishing the key<br />
Processes and Resources and then considers what might happen. This should produce a list of actions to eliminate, minimise or mitigate risk which the business can choose to accept or defer based on a cost-benefit analysis. This Operational Risk (the risk that something which worked yesterday will not function today) is considered separately from Strategic Risk – the subtle change in markets, value chains or other parts of the economic environment which affect the future health of the business.</p>
<p><strong>Crisis management</strong><br />
The first few hours can save – or doom – a business. The BMC defines this as follows:<br />
A Crisis is defined as an issue which has consequences beyond its direct ones<br />
(especially as a result of human, reputational or capacity damage). It is usually major or catastrophic in consequence, time-critical and the eventual outcome can be considerably affected by actions taken immediately.<br />
For some businesses &#8211; those whose staff (or customers) could be endangered by<br />
product failure, time needs to be spent planning for the immediate consequences.</p>
<p><strong>Sales planning</strong><br />
Sales has been aptly described as ‘The transfer of enthusiasm from the seller to the<br />
buyer’ and now is an excellent time to dust off the list of lost clients, missed<br />
opportunities and ‘what-ifs’ and take an acquisitive, imaginative approach to the year.</p>
<p>Plan sales campaigns, plan to revisit prospects you have not succeeded with and plan for an element of change in your current customers. Identify what is new or uplifting about your business and what it offers and make it a mission to transfer enthusiasm for that to everyone in your market place. 2012 is the year for being positive and your sales plan should reflect that.</p>
<p>Consider impact of regional powers having greater influence on markets<br />
As more countries thrust their way onto the global trading stage, expect opportunities (and competition) – and alternatives (especially to European suppliers). Consider all the components of your value chain and look at the emerging economies to see what might be done (Indonesia is not that far away).</p>
<p><strong>Market overview – adjacent opportunities</strong><br />
In conjunction with the above, look at the fringes of your markets – the related<br />
products, similar customers, congruent processes – and try to identify options for<br />
growth – or collaboration &#8211; for 2012 – and then pursue them.<br />
There are lots of reasons to be optimistic – demand will return and despite a<br />
couple of shocks 2012 will be a strong year. <strong>Be positive and be imaginative!</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="updated"  style="visibility:hidden;"> <h2 class="entry-title">Economic outlook 2012</h2></div>]]></content:encoded>
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